America’s NFL Super Bowl: “The Year of the Horse”
As I sat down to write this blog, I happened to notice in my calendar that today is Friday, January 31, in the Year of our Lord(Anno Domini -- A.D.) 2014. This day happens to be the Chinese New Year(in the Year of their Lord) 4712, and this is the beginning of the Year of the Horse. That is the first scientific reason I think the Broncos will achieve a large victory over the Seahawks. My prediction: Broncos 33 Seahawks 13.
This is the second: the inexperience of the Seahawks quarterback. Don’t get me wrong: I love Russell Wilson’s ability and intelligence and expect this fine organization to be back to the Superbowl in the near future led by him. However, I expect him to spend the first half with Superbowl eyes, a look like that found on the countenance of a deer caught in the lights of a sixteen wheeler coming downhill on a mountain road. By that time, it will be too late. If this sounds improbable, tell me how many points great quarterbacks like Rivers and Brady scored in the first half of the last two losing playoff games this year.
In backing up my estimate, I first challenged Wilson’s relative youth on the hypothesis that young quarterbacks had not fared well in the history of the Super Bowl. I found that age had nothing to do with it. Quarterbacks younger than twenty-eight won their fair share of Super Bowls: Namath was 25 in 1969, the same age as Wilson; so was Joe Montana in ’82; Ben Roethlisberger was 23 when the Steelers beat the Seahawks in ’06; Brady was 24 in ’02.(About.comFootball) So age was not the factor. I thought I might have to eat some crow(not hawk) on this. But I kept looking.
I looked at several factors until I found this one: In Superbowls where one quarterback who had previously won a Super Bowl(old hand) faced a quarterback appearing in the Superbowl for the first time(newbies), the old hands had a significant advantage. By my count, this has occurred fourteen times(if you count Bart Starr in the first Super Bowl versus newbie Len Dawson.) The old hands won ten of those matchups. Old hands included quarterbacks that had both won and lost a previous Super Bowl but not quarterbacks such as Tarkenton or Kelly, who never won a Super Bowl despite multiple appearances. Just appearing in a Superbowl previously was not enough.
Obviously, Peyton is the old hand and Wilson the newbie. Newbie quarterbacks that have fallen to the old hands include Fran Tarkenton(‘74), Dan Marino(‘85), and Boomer Esiason(‘89.) From this statistic I derived the 33-13 score as follows:
Old hands divided by total old hand/newbie matchups = 10 / 14 = 71%
My Estimated Over/under score is 46 points total. Most people would probably have no problem anticipating a 24-22 victory by either team.
71% x 46 points = 33 points for Peyton(old hand), leaving
13 points for Wilson(newbie)
46 points
Let me note for the Seahawks fans, that, of the four newbies who defeated old hands, all have occurred since 2001: Tom Brady(24) over Kurt Warner in ‘02; Eli Manning(27) over Brady in ‘08; Drew Brees(31) over Peyton Manning in ‘10; and Aaron Rodgers(31) over Ben Roethlisberger in ‘11.) The ‘hawks fans will immediately note that old hand Peyton Manning was defeated by a newbie not long ago. Could happen again. Yes it could. I am also aware that the trend to young quarterbacks since 2000 is startling. My theory is that it just doesn’t take as much to become an effective quarterback, what with the new protect-the-quarterback rules, as it did twenty years ago. Experience is not at such a premium. Alternately, the move to calling signals from the sidelines has made the quarterback position less significant. However, Peyton has revolutionized play calling in the NFL and is in full command, even to the point of training receivers.
My third scientific reason for calling the game for the Broncos in a big way is the makeup of the teams. It is my impression that Champ Bailey has been held out specifically for the playoffs like the Ravens held out several key older players last year. and Terrance Knighton(Pot Roast) is big and cat quick. During the regular season, Knowshon Moreno ran for a higher average yards per rush than Lynch and fumbled only once to Lynch’s 3 times. In a pass-happy offense, Moreno scored 10 rushing touchdowns to Lynch’s 12 and 3 passing touchdowns to Lynch’s 2. I love the Beast. He’s been awesome in the playoffs. But Moreno can run, too. So can Montee Ball. Also the Broncos have four receivers in the top ten in touchdowns received during the regular season: Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker. Welker, with the fewest touchdowns of the four, had ten touchdowns last season. The top receiver for Seattle was Zach Miller with five.(espn.go.com)
Finally, this is not the Broncos of the 80’s, but of the 90’s. Elway won it twice. The team was built by a football player who knows what it takes. I love the Seahawks, but the Broncos are a significantly better team. Broncos 33, Seahawks 13. It is the Year of the Horse. mm
P.s., for my friends who are not familiar with cowboy terms from the Old American west, a "bronco" is a horse, but probably a little wild. In American rodeos, there are bronc' riders, who try to stay on a horse while it is trying to throw them off. Throwing them off is called bucking. Denver is a city in the old west in the Rocky mountains, where marijuana has recently been legalized, which makes the inhabitants thereof a little wild, also. Hope this helps.m
